European C4ISR – Towards Integrated C2 at Coalition Level

 

Introduct Following ‘Operation Unified Protector’ in Libya one piece of puzzle, albeit the core one, which needed to be worked at, was a truly joint C2 system, able to execute complex NATO-led missions; this is expected to become the focus of European C4ISR spending through 2020. Among the other main influences to the market through 2020 are integrated NATO-led Air and Missile Defence (AMD) network and integrated national C2 system- connecting top ruling brasses through to the lower military, homeland security and first responder’s echelons. Most European countries are already at the fore front of driving integration of existing disparate systems towards such a unified national command.

Interoperability stands out as the key enabler to the above mentioned C4ISR capabilities. This can be realised either through procuring similar equipment across coalition forces or inserting hardware-independent software programmable systems. While the former is seemingly impossible the later will likely have opportunities for the industry, in cooperation with European Defence Agency (EDA) and NATO. But its implementation needs to have a consortium approach between industry and these two agencies with long term research and technology (R&T) investment strategy.

Another key trend shaping the market is C4ISR architecture increasingly becoming modular – departing from present, embedded system to an open, scalable, SOA-based federated system. A unified network topology based open modular systems allows platforms/equipment/applications to be added or deducted in a plug-and-play mode; bringing in much needed flexibility to the system.

Also an equally important trend is COTS-based systems gradually taking over most parts of the existing embedded C4ISR eco-systems, fuelled by budget constraint and not least the need for built-in flexibility. But, end-user perception on such systems is not completely devoid of suspicion, especially in the current climate of cyber attack. Furthermore, COTS counterfeit parts can enter the complex supply chains of C4ISR equipment, potentially causing serious disruption to networks, delaying ongoing missions, and even affecting the integrity of the whole system. Tier I integrators need to constantly check and validate on original component and parts manufacturers (Tier II and Tier III) to minimise such disruption.

Another key challenge that end-users face is data overload, where Operation/C2 centres are increasingly swamped with data from multiple sensors/sources, including UAVs: we need systems which can quickly translate this data into actionable intelligence, disseminate to multiple end-users in real-time, and can be archived and retrieved at will. Known as ‘Data Fusion’ or ‘Information Operation’ in the industry, this is essentially based on image processing, dissemination and distribution (PED) technology. However, this problem of data overload can be better solved through a custom-based consulting approach - solutions provided by the likes of technology consulting firms- rather than through off-the-shelf products.

Key Opportunity Overview

The European C4ISR market is forecast to grow modestly over the study period 2011- 2020, despite defence budget cuts in all but a few countries. Frost & Sullivan forecast that total C4ISR spending in 2011- 2020 will be $140.39 billion, with an increase from $13.55 billion in 2011 to $15.02 in 2020 – at 1.02% CAGR.

Greater synergy among government entities - defence, civil security, critical national infrastructure authority (CNIA) and commercial security- tackling common threats is likely to present the industry with economies of scale in opportunities, and the end-users with efficiency amid budgetary pressure, without compromising effect. This can be achieved through increasing commonality of systems used by different end-user groups. Therefore, we anticipate that common products/systems/services will increasingly fulfil the requirements of all agencies in a country, under a unified command. This will however necessitate integration of C2, communications, IT, surveillance (including UAS ground stations and radars), C-IED and biometrics assets under a scalable C4ISR architecture.

France The UK Germany Italy Turkey Spain The NetherlandsAustria Portugal The Czech Rep. Romania Slovenia Slovakia The Baltic States Hungary Bulgaria Low High Opportunity/Market Attractiveness Medium Sector with most attractive markets in Europe over 2011-2020 1234567 17 16 18 19 20 21 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 91011 13 121415 1617 19 18 20 2122 Level of C4ISR spending High Low Medium 23 22 23 High ( > $ 5bn) Medium ($5bn - $ 2bn) Low ( < $ 2bn ) 15 High C4ISR Market: Market Attractiveness Grid (Europe), 2011-2020 89 10 11 13 12 14 Belgium Poland Norway Sweden Denmark Finland Greece Medium Low On the airborne side, the demand for airborne C2, electronic support/counter measures (ESM/ECM) and surveillance/maritime patrol aircraft (MPA) is expected to grow steadily due to ever increasing need for total situational awareness, survivability and qualitative superiority; not least due to the fact that a growing number of special-mission platforms are getting older across European countries, which will require replacement/upgrade. The other opportunity worth looking at is military vehicles that are potentially turning into a small situational awareness hub with multi-role functionality. Most wheeled/armoured fighting or C2 vehicles that have recently been contracted by the European MoDs have computing systems onboard an advanced open vehicle electronic architecture (VEA). This enables integration of all elements of total situational awareness- communications, surveillance, navigation, biometrics, force tracking (blue/red), fire control, and survivability/protection systems (i.e., Counter-IED), into a common display, aimed at comprehensive force protection in the frontline.

EDA and NATO initiatives a corner stone to C4ISR Spending

Good news- one of the unintended consequences of the debt crisis is, EU member states are willing to work closer towards common security and defence initiatives more than ever, as a way of finding efficiency in government spending; resulting in further EDA influence on common equipment and standards. To this end what might interest C4ISR companies more is R&T projects; over 90% of the projects taken up by EDA, deemed critical to European defence capability, relate to C4ISR one way or the other.

Two major areas of C4ISR where NATO has a distinctive lead is- strategic C2 (at coalition level), and AMD network. Strategic C2 is an ongoing project where each member countries are already onboard and contributing towards surveillance and C3I integration. With regards to European AMD shield, an interim capability is being installed and expected to finish by August 2012. The second phase of the programme- integrating national resources through unified command and surveillance structure- should be more interesting as it is expected to attract most investments. It is forecast to complete by 2015-17. Further phases, albeit distant, would look at investment towards establishing joint command centres to include Russia, for sharing surveillance and intelligence assessment on WMD. Therefore, we appreciate that defence companies need to track initiatives from these two organizations more than ever.

Key Messages for Suppliers

Tier 1 integrators are recommended to take note of the projected upgrade opportunities, particularly in the C2 integration and AMD projects, and position their capabilities accordingly. They are also advised a take a hard look on what’s not available in the current inventory of a particular country, especially in the Eastern European and Nordic countries in terms of mission/role specific platforms/capabilities. On top of new-buys on special-mission air platforms and land vehicles, sensors and self protective suites upgrade is a promising segment which relevant companies would find worth pursuing.

As the market is beginning to demonstrate increasing outsourcing of C4ISR as a service from industry, the suppliers need to firm up propositions on managed solutions to a particular capability gap. The European end-users may no longer buy some capabilities upfront- such as maritime surveillance for example- due to lack of funding from current economic fallout, rather lease capability and pay per usage.

Finally, industry should not ignore the fact that end-users need adequate training on advanced equipment in one hand and ever increasing collaborative projects/capabilities in the other; creating significant potential for training and simulation systems within C4ISR segment.

 

 

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